Monte Carlo Game Simulator

Plug in two teams. We simulate the game 10,000 times — pitch by pitch, batter by batter — and show you the full distribution of outcomes, fair prices on every market, and live edge vs. the book.

⚙️ Game Inputs

Away Team Talent (wRC+ avg, 100 = league) Home Team Talent (wRC+ avg) Away Starter xFIP (4.0 = average, lower is better) Home Starter xFIP Park Factor (0.85 = Petco, 1.20 = Coors) Wind (mph, + = blowing out, - = blowing in) Market Total (the over/under line) Market Home ML (American odds) Number of simulations

📊 Run DistributionIdle

Home Win %—

Away Win %—

Avg Total Runs—

Avg Home Runs—

P(Over Market)—

P(Home -1.5)—

💰 Fair Prices vs. Market

Market	Side	Model Prob	Fair Price	Market Price	Edge	Kelly	Play

📈 Win Probability Path

As more simulations run, the home-win probability estimate converges. This is your model's bootstrap confidence interval — narrower = more certain.