Loading tonight's play …
tonight's highest-edge play — populated from today.json on page load
Loading tonight's rationale from today.json…
Model + park + weather + umpire context populates here after fetch.
Calibration disclaimer appears here if today's edge is pre-cal.
Each row is the marginal expected-runs contribution to the model's fair total. Positive = favors OVER, negative = favors UNDER. Sum across factors = model edge vs league baseline.
Joint Poisson distribution of total game runs given the modeled team scoring rates. Populated from today.json on load.
- Loading tonight's game conditions…
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Total | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading current market line… | ||||
Single-book pricing for now (Bovada or DK depending on availability). Multi-book CSV shop is on the roadmap.
| Market | Side | Price | Model % | Edge | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading alternate plays from today.json… | |||||
Every play is a probabilistic bet, not a guarantee. A 64% win probability still means a 36% chance of losing this single play. EdgeStat picks are sized to maximize long-term bankroll growth using ¼-Kelly staking, which trades short-term variance for resilience. We publish every recommendation publicly so you can independently verify our CLV and ROI over time.
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