Tennis Desk — Loading…

P(win) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloₒₚₚ − eloₚₗₐyₑᵣ)/400)) with a per-surface ELO adjustment. STRONG = model favorite at 60–78% (5%+ edge vs a −120 favorite's 54.5% breakeven).

Projected aces from server quality, surface multiplier (grass ↑, clay ↓) and the opponent's return factor. Lean fires when the projection clears the line with margin.

• Upcoming ATP + WTA matches pulled live from ESPN's free tennis scoreboard
• Surface-adjusted ELO (50-player rated database; surface inferred from the event)
• Match-win, aces, double-faults, set-score, tiebreak and break-of-serve projections
• Results settle off ESPN finals — forward record builds as matches complete