⚾ MLB Pitcher Matchup — K Prop Engine

For each game, both starters' last 8 starts feed a Poisson model. We sweep K lines 4.5/5.5/6.5/7.5 and surface the line where the model gives 58–78% P(over) — that's the sweet spot where the model has edge but isn't betting a coin flip.

The ER UNDER 2.5 box flags starters with sub-3.50 ERA where the model gives ≥55% P(under) — long pitcher quality plays.