Golf Desk — Loading…
Pulling PGA Tour leaderboard…
--Players in Field
--Rounds Left
--Current Leader
--Leader Score
--Fav P(win)
--MC Sims
⛳ Play of the Tournament--
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🏆 Live Leaderboard + Win Probabilities--
Win / Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 20 probabilities and fair American odds from 5K Monte Carlo on remaining rounds. Refresh page during play to update.
PosPlayerTotalThruP(win)FairP(top5)P(top10)P(top20)
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⚔️ Head-to-Head Matchupsclosest 20 from top 30 (435 pairs total)
Probability that Player A finishes ahead of Player B for the tournament. Ties = push.
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🎰 2-3 Leg Parlays--
Top quality-scored parlays from WIN / TOP5 / TOP10 / H2H legs. Mostly-independent legs; same-player legs get a small correlation bump.
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🇺🇸 Top American / 🇪🇺 Top European--
Probability the named player finishes highest among their nationality bucket.
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📋 How the model works
For each player, simulate the remaining rounds 5,000 times:
- Per-round score ~ Normal(mean, σ=3) where mean = -SKILL_PER_STROKE × (player's current total − field median).
- Better players (lower current total) get a slight skill bonus that reduces their expected per-round score.
- Sum simulated remaining-round scores onto current total to get final 72-hole position.
- Tally P(rank=1), P(rank≤5), P(rank≤10), P(rank≤20) across all sims.
- Convert probabilities → fair American odds with no vig added.
Compare to live sportsbook prices to find +EV. (Bookmaker pricing usually 20-30% vig on outrights — needs ~5% edge to break even after vig.)