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  "generated_at": "2026-10-07T06:30:42",
  "n_settled": 12023,
  "n_families_transformed": 33,
  "n_families_bucketed": 19,
  "ece_before": 0.0875,
  "ece_after": 0.0116,
  "ece_improvement": 0.0759,
  "brier_before": 0.20963,
  "brier_after": 0.19262,
  "method_note": "Per market family, a monotonic (isotonic) curve maps the model's predicted probability to the realized hit rate, learned from settled outcomes. Bucketed for well-sampled families (preserves ranking), a family-average Bayesian blend for mid-sample, identity below that. ECE = expected calibration error (lower = the displayed % is truer). This makes the model honest at the source; it does not create edge (that needs a market price).",
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