# EdgeStat Daily Brief - 2026-06-13

**Model Confidence: 68.5/100 [YELLOW]** -- Still learning. Small flat plays only; treat anything >+10% edge as suspect.

_Pipeline health: **WARNING** (13/15 artifacts ok; 2 empty, 0 stale)._ 

_Generated at 2026-06-13T12:01:50 UTC. Game lines source: **Bovada (fallback -- DK primary unavailable)**. Pick-em opportunities from PrizePicks._

## Play of the Day

**LAD @ CHW - OVER_8.0**
- Market: -110
- Model probability: 81.7%
- Raw edge: +55.99%
- Recommended stake: <= 0.5u (model calibrating)

> _Edge >= 15% is well above what a properly-calibrated baseball model produces. Treat this as a research signal until 30+ outcomes have flowed through the calibration loop._

## Full Slate (15 games)

| Time | Matchup | Park | Weather | Top edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10p ET | STL @ MIN | Target Field | 73F 15mph | OVER_9.0 +19.39% |
| 3:07p ET | NYY @ TOR | Rogers Centre | indoor | NYY_ML +35.55% |
| 4:05p ET | SDP @ BAL | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | 86F 4mph | BAL_ML +16.69% |
| 4:05p ET | SEA @ WSN | Nationals Park | 85F 2mph | WSN_ML +8.89% |
| 4:05p ET | MIA @ PIT | PNC Park | 82F 6mph | OVER_9.0 +10.15% |
| 4:10p ET | ARI @ CIN | Great American Ball Park | 85F 4mph | UNDER_9.5 +2.87% |
| 4:10p ET | DET @ CLE | Progressive Field | 84F 10mph | DET_ML +25.06% |
| 4:10p ET | TEX @ BOS | Fenway Park | 81F 4mph | BOS_ML +2.84% |
| 4:10p ET | ATL @ NYM | Citi Field | 79F 7mph | ATL_ML +51.79% |
| 4:10p ET | LAD @ CHW | Rate Field | 82F 8mph | OVER_8.0 +55.99% |
| 7:10p ET | HOU @ KCR | Kauffman Stadium | 76F 16mph | OVER_9.5 +21.3% |
| 7:10p ET | PHI @ MIL | American Family Field | indoor | MIL_ML +33.12% |
| 10:05p ET | COL @ OAK | Las Vegas Ballpark | 70F 0mph | UNDER_14.0 +45.15% |
| 10:05p ET | CHC @ SFG | Oracle Park | 54F 12mph | UNDER_8.0 +24.53% |
| 10:07p ET | TBR @ LAA | Angel Stadium | 66F 3mph | OVER_8.0 +25.06% |

## Parlays - top 5

- **3-leg @ +434 (prob 28.1%, EV +49.92%)**
  - STL @ MIN OVER_9.0 (-110, model 62.5%)
  - COL @ OAK OAK_ML (-175, model 76.1%)
  - CHC @ SFG CHC_ML (-128, model 58.9%)
- **3-leg @ +473 (prob 26.1%, EV +49.27%)**
  - MIA @ PIT OVER_9.0 (-110, model 57.7%)
  - ATL @ NYM UNDER_8.0 (-110, model 59.4%)
  - COL @ OAK OAK_ML (-175, model 76.1%)
- **3-leg @ +596 (prob 21.4%, EV +49.02%)**
  - STL @ MIN OVER_9.0 (-110, model 62.5%)
  - MIA @ PIT OVER_9.0 (-110, model 57.7%)
  - ATL @ NYM UNDER_8.0 (-110, model 59.4%)
- **3-leg @ +530 (prob 23.5%, EV +47.9%)**
  - STL @ MIN OVER_9.0 (-110, model 62.5%)
  - MIA @ PIT MIA_ML (+110, model 49.3%)
  - COL @ OAK OAK_ML (-175, model 76.1%)
- **3-leg @ +473 (prob 25.8%, EV +47.57%)**
  - SEA @ WSN WSN_ML (-110, model 57.0%)
  - ATL @ NYM UNDER_8.0 (-110, model 59.4%)
  - COL @ OAK OAK_ML (-175, model 76.1%)

## Self-Learning Loop

| Market | n settled | Hit rate | Model implied | Bias | Correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter rbis | 360 | 19.4% | 23.0% | 1.183 | 0.849 |
| batter doubles | 180 | 16.1% | 16.0% | 0.991 | 1.009 |
| batter home runs | 180 | 11.1% | 12.8% | 1.150 | 0.878 |
| batter runs scored | 180 | 36.1% | 38.8% | 1.073 | 0.935 |
| batter singles | 180 | 40.0% | 45.5% | 1.137 | 0.883 |
| batter hits | 407 | 40.8% | 42.0% | 1.029 | 0.972 |
| batter total bases | 362 | 25.7% | 32.5% | 1.262 | 0.795 |
| pitcher strikeouts | 73 | 38.4% | 47.4% | 1.232 | 0.835 |

Cumulative graded plays: 118214. Wins: 87366. Hit rate: 73.9%.

## Auxiliary Markets (Model Fair Prices)

| Matchup | NRFI % | NRFI fair | F5 total | RL home -1.5 fair | RL away +1.5 fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ CIN | 38.1% | +163 | 4.86 | +212 | -212 |
| ATL @ NYM | 45.6% | +119 | 4.08 | +700 | -700 |
| CHC @ SFG | 61.2% | -158 | 2.64 | +267 | -267 |
| COL @ OAK | 22.8% | +339 | 7.39 | -196 | +196 |
| DET @ CLE | 36.8% | +172 | 5.25 | +576 | -576 |
| HOU @ KCR | 40.8% | +145 | 4.18 | -102 | +102 |
| LAD @ CHW | 55.4% | -124 | 3.1 | +363 | -363 |
| MIA @ PIT | 44.7% | +124 | 4.17 | +162 | -162 |
| NYY @ TOR | 43.2% | +132 | 4.2 | +630 | -630 |
| PHI @ MIL | 32.6% | +206 | 5.6 | -201 | +201 |
| SDP @ BAL | 32.5% | +208 | 5.6 | -117 | +117 |
| SEA @ WSN | 47.6% | +110 | 3.75 | +127 | -127 |
| STL @ MIN | 30.5% | +228 | 6.32 | +130 | -130 |
| TBR @ LAA | 37.9% | +164 | 4.91 | +173 | -173 |
| TEX @ BOS | 46.7% | +114 | 3.72 | +134 | -134 |

## Team Form (last 10)

**Hot:** DET 7-3 (L1, +29), MIA 9-1 (W6, +28), MIL 6-4 (W1, +21), STL 6-4 (L2, +20), BAL 5-5 (W3, +12)

**Cold:** AZ 3-7 (W1, -32), CIN 2-8 (L2, -25), MIN 4-6 (W1, -22), COL 4-6 (L2, -19), PIT 3-7 (L2, -16)

## Gassed Bullpens (> 8.0 IP in 2 days)

- AZ: 8.1 IP across 2 games
- BAL: 8.3 IP across 2 games
- KC: 10.1 IP across 2 games

## Loop Activity (since last refresh)

- Confidence delta: **-2.8**

## Model Recommendations (operator review)

_The model is suggesting 1 parameter tweak based on its own performance. Apply via `data/runtime_config.json` on `/config`._

- **[MEDIUM] `live_edges.edge_threshold_pp`** ↓ 3.5 -> **2.0**
  - _Zero live edge alerts in last 24h despite live props being priced. Threshold may be too tight to surface anything actionable._

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_EdgeStat is a research desk. Bet responsibly. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER._
_Source: github.com/Keyvaniath/bpleone-betting - last settled 2026-06-12._