Book Edges (Team Moneyline)
REAL
model-vs-book comparison against live DraftKings moneylines
(
ESPN's free odds feed, refreshed every
heartbeat; frozen snapshot lines as fallback — each edge row stamps its
line_source). Edge % = model_prob × book_decimal − 1, after
de-vigging the book's pair to remove juice. Filter: model probability in [30%, 78%],
3%+ edge.
Today's Team ML Book Edges
Matchup · Side
Type
Model %
Calib %
Book %
Book ML
Raw Edge
Calib Edge
Kelly
Today's Total (O/U) Book Edges
Matchup · Side
Line
Model %
Calib %
Book %
Price
Raw Edge
Calib Edge
Kelly
Basketball (WNBA / NBA) — Model vs DraftKings Moneyline
Free ESPN/DK moneyline, de-vigged, vs the model's win prob. Basketball closes sharp — edges are usually small; this is transparency + spotting genuine divergence.
How to read this: Edge is calculated against ACTUAL book
prices (live DraftKings lines via ESPN's free feed; frozen snapshot as
fallback), not against model fair-odds. A +12% edge means the model thinks
$1 on this side returns $1.12 long-run.
Caveat: Very large edges (20%+) often mean the model is
overconfident, not that there's free money. The learning loop
(learning_integrity + self_learn_weights) shrinks these over time as
actual outcomes accumulate.
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