by bpleone
LIVE

Alpha Pick of the Day

Different from Play of the Day. The Alpha Pick is the model's highest ROI per dollar risked play — could be a favorite or an underdog. POD asks "where am I most confident?" Alpha asks "where is the book most wrong?"
★ ALPHA PICK
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Model Prob
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Fair Odds
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ROI / $1
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Kelly Frac.
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¼-Kelly Unit
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The Slip — Props of the Day

Player
Prop
Model
Fair
Edge
¼-Kelly
Loading the slip…

Other Plays the Machine Likes

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Top 5 Alpha Candidates

Sport / Player
Type
Market
Prob
Fair Odds
ROI
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How the model picks Alpha vs POD

Play of Day ranks by confidence × edge × calibration — bias toward high-probability favorites where the model is sure. Variance-tight. Lower payout but high hit-rate.

Alpha Pick ranks by raw ROI per $1 risked = model_prob × decimal_odds − 1. Excludes longshots below 18% (variance too brutal) and heavy-fav territory above 85% (that's where POD lives). What's left is the band where pricing inefficiency tends to concentrate: solid favs the book is mis-shading or underdogs the model thinks are live.

Diagnostics

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