The market is a number. We trade the gap.
EdgeStat is a quantitative sports-betting research desk. We model every game, expose where the books mis-price the market, and surface the highest-edge play in the league each morning. Think of it as Unusual Whales — for the diamond, the gridiron, and the hardwood.
Alpha is the plays we actually recommend (Lock of the Day, Top 25, Whale, Sharp, Consensus, Under Alerts, POD). All Signals also counts every experimental prop feed — those exist to train the model at 1u-flat, not to bet, which is why the blended line runs negative. Full track record →
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| Type | Book | Target | Market | Side / Line | Price | Model % | Edge | Score |
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14-day rolling edge between EdgeStat moneyline model and consensus market.
Average CLV across all settled plays. Positive CLV is the leading indicator of long-term ROI.
Hit rate on settled plays segmented by bet type. Player props lead our portfolio.
Today's MLB Slate — Modeled
Full board →| Time | Matchup | Starters | Model ML | Market ML | Edge | Model O/U | Market O/U | Recommendation |
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What you get with EdgeStat
Bayesian Game Engine
A hierarchical Bayesian model that updates each team's true talent in real time using starter, lineup, park, weather, bullpen rest, and umpire factors.
Probability Surfaces
Every line — moneyline, runline, total, first-5, player props — is given a fair price. We expose the gap between our number and the book's.
Sharp Flow Tracker
Real-time detection of "steam moves" and reverse-line movement, so you see when smart money has hit the market — like Unusual Whales for sportsbooks.
EdgeStat Academy
Free curriculum: Kelly criterion, expected value, variance, CLV, market efficiency, and how to actually grow a bankroll instead of "vibes" betting.
Play of the Day
One play. Highest-edge, highest-confidence — every day. Full transparency on price, model probability, Kelly stake, and rationale.
Public Track Record
Every play we recommend is logged with timestamp, price, result, and CLV. No cherry-picked screenshots. Numbers don't lie.